Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
